| # | Player | Club | Pred. votes | GP | KICK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Daicos | Collingwood | 42 | 22 | 79 |
| 2 | Bailey Smith | Geelong | 39 | 22 | 81 |
| 3 | Marcus Bontempelli | Western Bulldogs | 29 | 22 | 75 |
| 4 | Max Gawn | Melbourne | 28 | 23 | 81 |
| 5 | Izak Rankine | Adelaide | 27 | 20 | 71 |
| 6 | Will Ashcroft | Brisbane Lions | 27 | 23 | 70 |
| 7 | Patrick Cripps | Carlton | 27 | 23 | 67 |
| 8 | Lachie Neale | Brisbane Lions | 26 | 23 | 72 |
| 9 | Isaac Heeney | Sydney | 25 | 20 | 77 |
| 10 | Harry Sheezel | North Melbourne | 24 | 22 | 75 |
| 11 | Jordan Dawson | Adelaide | 22 | 20 | 74 |
| 12 | Caleb Serong | Fremantle | 21 | 20 | 65 |
| 13 | Jai Newcombe | Hawthorn | 21 | 23 | 66 |
| 14 | Zak Butters | Port Adelaide | 20 | 17 | 72 |
| 15 | Clayton Oliver | Greater Western Sydney | 20 | 23 | 70 |
| 16 | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | St Kilda | 19 | 17 | 72 |
| 17 | Ed Richards | Western Bulldogs | 18 | 22 | 73 |
| 18 | Kysaiah Pickett | Melbourne | 18 | 23 | 65 |
| 19 | Luke Davies-Uniacke | North Melbourne | 18 | 23 | 64 |
| 20 | Brodie Grundy | Sydney | 18 | 21 | 72 |
| 21 | Noah Anderson | Gold Coast | 18 | 22 | 69 |
| 22 | Errol Gulden | Sydney | 17 | 11 | 74 |
| 23 | Max Holmes | Geelong | 16 | 18 | 67 |
| 24 | Jason Horne-Francis | Port Adelaide | 16 | 21 | 67 |
| 25 | Andrew Brayshaw | Fremantle | 15 | 23 | 61 |
| 26 | Tom Sparrow | Melbourne | 14 | 23 | 62 |
| 27 | Shai Bolton | Fremantle | 13 | 22 | 58 |
| 28 | George Hewett | Carlton | 13 | 19 | 60 |
| 29 | Sam Walsh | Carlton | 13 | 23 | 63 |
| 30 | Luke Jackson | Fremantle | 13 | 23 | 71 |
| 31 | Touk Miller | Gold Coast | 13 | 23 | 58 |
| 32 | Sam Berry | Adelaide | 12 | 22 | 61 |
| 33 | Connor Macdonald | Hawthorn | 12 | 23 | 53 |
| 34 | Josh Daicos | Collingwood | 12 | 23 | 59 |
| 35 | Chad Warner | Sydney | 12 | 22 | 66 |
| 36 | John Noble | Gold Coast | 12 | 23 | 57 |
| 37 | Zac Bailey | Brisbane Lions | 11 | 22 | 61 |
| 38 | Zach Merrett | Essendon | 11 | 23 | 66 |
| 39 | Max Hall | St Kilda | 11 | 23 | 64 |
| 40 | Wayne Milera | Adelaide | 10 | 18 | 56 |
Top 40 of 170 players our model gives at least one vote in 2026. Hover a vote count for its round-by-round breakdown. KICK is our 0–100 rating — how it works.
How the model has performed
The same rule, run on past seasons and compared with the votes umpires actually awarded.
| Year | Actual winner (votes) | Our pre-count pick | Where the winner sat in our list | Top-5 overlap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Patrick Cripps (29) | Lachie Neale | ranked #5 in our list | 5/5 |
| 2023 | Lachie Neale (31) | Nick Daicos | ranked #4 in our list | 3/5 |
| 2024 | Patrick Cripps (45) | Patrick Cripps | ✓ picked outright | 3/5 |
| 2025 | Matt Rowell (39) | Nick Daicos | ranked #6 in our list | 2/5 |
Honesty note: the model's three tilt settings were tuned on these same four seasons, so this table shows calibration quality rather than out-of-sample proof. The 2026 column above is the first genuinely blind test.
About the prediction
Who is predicted to win the 2026 Brownlow Medal?
Our model has Nick Daicos (Collingwood) on 42 predicted votes through Round 24, 3 clear of Bailey Smith (39). The prediction updates after every round.
How does the Brownlow predictor work?
For every home-and-away match we rank all 44+ players by a vote score — their KICK Game Score tilted toward disposals and goals (the stats umpires visibly reward), with a bonus for being on the winning team — and assign predicted 3-2-1 votes to the top three. Season tallies are the sum of those predictions. Finals are excluded because Brownlow votes are only cast in the home-and-away season.
Has this model picked real Brownlow winners?
Backtested on 2022–2025 using the actual votes umpires awarded: it picked 1 of 4 winners outright and the eventual winner was never ranked lower than #6 in its list. On average 3.2 of the real top five appeared in the model's top five. The model's tilt settings were chosen on these same seasons, so treat the backtest as calibration, not out-of-sample proof.
Why does the predicted leader differ from the KICK Rating leader?
Because umpires don't vote the way a rating measures. KICK scores the full box score — spoils, hit-outs, pressure, position-adjusted value — while Brownlow votes flow disproportionately to high-disposal midfielders and goal-kickers in winning teams. This page models the votes; the leaderboards rank the football. The gap between the two columns is the interesting part.
Can a predicted leader be ineligible?
Yes. Players suspended during the season are ineligible for the Brownlow under AFL rules. The model does not track suspensions — it predicts votes, not eligibility — so check any leader's record before treating them as the favourite.
The formula, in one sentence
Every player's game gets a vote score — KICK Game Score + 1.6 × disposals + 1 × goals, multiplied by 1.2 if their team won — and the top three in each match get 3-2-1. The tilt terms exist because umpires reward visible ball-winning: a pure-KICK ranking backtests worse, over-rating rucks whose value shows up in hit-outs rather than possessions.
Related: the Coleman Medal ladder (leading goalkickers, updated every round) and the overall KICK leaderboard (the Brownlow-aligned ranking of how good the football has actually been). This page is analysis, not betting advice.